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The Global 2000 Report to the President and the Threshold 21 model: influences of Dana Meadows and system dynamics

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  • Gerald O. Barney

Abstract

The author first met Dana Meadows and her colleagues in the Limits to Growth project during a postdoctoral year at MIT, setting the author on a new career and life path. The first major step was directing the Global 2000 Report for President Jimmy Carter. In the Global 2000 project, we improved the connections and consistency among the sector‐specific elements of the Government's Global Model. The results of the projections were generally consistent with the Limits study, but analysis showed that the Government's models were biased optimistically because of omitted feedbacks. Another major step was the establishment of Millennium Institute (MI) and the development of the Threshold 21 (T21) integrated national development model. There are no global decision makers who can address the global issues of Limits; humanity's global decisions are largely the combined consequences of national level decisions. MI's T21 model provides an analytical tool for ministers of finance and planning that produces the same financial and monetary outputs as the models used by the World Bank and IMF, but that also address the social and environmental aspects of national sustainability issues. After more than a decade of work, T21 has gained much respect and has been customized to more than a dozen countries, industrialized as well as developing. In addition to describing the influence of Dana and system dynamics on the author's life, the article sketches out work needed for the future. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald O. Barney, 2002. "The Global 2000 Report to the President and the Threshold 21 model: influences of Dana Meadows and system dynamics," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 18(2), pages 123-136, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:18:y:2002:i:2:p:123-136
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.233
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Pedercini & Santiago Movilla Blanco & Birgit Kopainsky, 2011. "Application of the Malaria Management Model to the Analysis of Costs and Benefits of DDT versus Non-DDT Malaria Control," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-12, November.
    2. Pedercini, Matteo & Barney, Gerald O., 2010. "Dynamic analysis of interventions designed to achieve millennium development goals (MDG): The case of Ghana," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 89-99, June.
    3. Michael Lerner & Ryo Fujikura & Mikiyasu Nakayama & Manami Fujikura, 2016. "The Influence of Limits to Growth and Global 2000 on U.S. Environmental Governance," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(8), pages 52-63, August.
    4. Yi Xiao & Jinqi Zhao & Siqi Sun & Luo Guo & Jan Axmacher & Weiguo Sang, 2019. "Sustainability Dynamics of Traditional Villages: A Case Study in Qiannan Prefecture, Guizhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Matteo Pedercini & Steve Arquitt & Derek Chan, 2020. "Integrated simulation for the 2030 agenda†," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(3), pages 333-357, July.

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