Voorspellen van de economische toestand

Prediction in the economic sphere. The technique of prognosis, as an aid in government policy, is of great importance for the general economic prosperity. A description is given of the method by which the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau, as advisor to the government, endeavours to compile an overall picture of the economic future. Further, information is furnished regarding applied aggregation, in which the micro‐economic magnitudes are combined into macro‐economic variables and the micro‐economic relationships into macro‐economic relationships. The optimum aggregation combines a still adequate wieldability with an acceptable error. Part of the variables in the econometric model must be estimated independently. Generally speaking, the magnitudes can be classified into two categories: the autonomous and the non‐autonomous variables. In addition, there is another important classification, viz. the division into: a. objects (e.g. employment, actual wage level), b. instruments (e.g. taxation, government expenditure), c. data (e.g. growth of population, world‐wide economic conditions), d. irrelevant variables (e.g. nominal wage level, price level). Furthermore, Goudr***aan's criticism of the method for determining the economic structure is discussed, because he is of opinion that the approach to econometry has so far been incorrect in principle, both as regards the analysis of the historical time series and the technique of prognosis.