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Modelling the effect of climate change on prevalence of malaria in western Africa

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  • Monica C. Jackson
  • Laura Johansen
  • Cathy Furlong
  • Abigail Colson
  • Kimberly F. Sellers

Abstract

Malaria is a leading cause of infectious disease and death worldwide. As a common example of a vector‐borne disease, malaria could be greatly affected by the influence of climate change. Climate impacts the transmission of malaria in several ways, affecting all stages of the disease's development. Using various weather‐related factors that influence climate change, this study utilizes statistical analysis to determine the effect of climate change on reported malaria rates in an African region with endemic malaria. It examines the relationship between malaria prevalence and climate in western Africa using spatial regression modeling and tests for correlation. Our analysis suggests that minimal correlation exists between reported malaria rates and climate in western Africa. This analysis further contradicts the prevailing theory that climate and malaria prevalence are closely linked and negates the idea that climate change will increase malaria transmission in this region.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica C. Jackson & Laura Johansen & Cathy Furlong & Abigail Colson & Kimberly F. Sellers, 2010. "Modelling the effect of climate change on prevalence of malaria in western Africa," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 64(4), pages 388-400, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:64:y:2010:i:4:p:388-400
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2010.00453.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Madina Doumbia & Jean Tenena Coulibaly & Dieudonné Kigbafori Silué & Guéladio Cissé & Jacques-André N’Dione & Brama Koné, 2023. "Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(23), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Saralees Nadarajah & Stephen Chan & Emmanuel Afuecheta, 2014. "Extreme value analysis for emerging African markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1347-1360, May.

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