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How To Assign Probabilities If You Must

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  • C. J. Albers
  • W. Schaafsma

Abstract

Empirical evidence can sometimes be incorporated in a probabilistic analysis by conditioning with respect to the observations. Usually, the underlying probability distribution and also the conditional distribution are not completely known. The assignment of probabilities will then require a compromise. The making of such a compromise goes beyond mathematical theory: a statistical discussion is needed. It depends on the context whether the result of such discussion is almost compelling, reasonable, or not really agreeable. This is illustrated by means of a simple example from the area of predictive distributional inference.

Suggested Citation

  • C. J. Albers & W. Schaafsma, 2001. "How To Assign Probabilities If You Must," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 55(3), pages 346-357, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:55:y:2001:i:3:p:346-357
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9574.00173
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    Cited by:

    1. O. J. W. F. Kardaun & D. Salomè & W. Schaafsma & A. G. M. Steerneman & J. C. Willems & D.R. Cox, 2003. "Reflections on Fourteen Cryptic Issues Concerning the Nature of Statistical Inference," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 71(2), pages 277-303, August.

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