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Mobilized by Direct Democracy: Short‐Term Versus Long‐Term Effects and the Geography of Turnout in Ballot Measure Elections

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  • Joshua J. Dyck
  • Nicholas R. Seabrook

Abstract

Objectives. A number of recent studies find that direct democracy increases voter turnout. In this article, we ask: Who does direct democracy mobilize to vote and how are they mobilized? We distinguish between long‐term and short‐term effects on voter turnout, noting that much of the current literature has focused on participatory theory. Methods. Our research design harnesses the power of geographic information systems and examines turnout in special initiative‐only elections using registered voter lists. Our model draws on individual and Census tract data, incorporated using a hierarchical generalized linear model. Results. The findings demonstrate how partisan context mitigates the potential for direct democracy to mobilize from the middle, and clarifies the dominance of short‐term as opposed to long‐term effects in increasing voter participation in ballot initiative elections. Conclusion. Mobilization via direct legislation occurs mostly because voters are actively mobilized by partisan campaigns, not because of an increase in participatory fervor.

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  • Joshua J. Dyck & Nicholas R. Seabrook, 2010. "Mobilized by Direct Democracy: Short‐Term Versus Long‐Term Effects and the Geography of Turnout in Ballot Measure Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(1), pages 188-208, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:91:y:2010:i:1:p:188-208
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00688.x
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    1. Bruno S. Frey & Alois Stutzer, 2002. "What Can Economists Learn from Happiness Research?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 402-435, June.
    2. Joshua J. Dyck & James G. Gimpel, 2005. "Distance, Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 86(3), pages 531-548, September.
    3. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    4. Bowler, Shaun & Donovan, Todd, 2002. "Democracy, Institutions and Attitudes about Citizen Influence on Government," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 371-390, April.
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    1. Stefan Voigt & Lorenz Blume, 2015. "Does direct democracy make for better citizens? A cautionary warning based on cross-country evidence," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 391-420, December.
    2. Matthias Fatke, 2013. "Participation and Political Equality in Direct Democracy: Educative Effect or Social Bias," University of Bern Social Sciences Working Papers 3, University of Bern, Department of Social Sciences.
    3. Frederick J. Boehmke & R. Michael Alvarez, 2014. "The Influence of Initiative Signature-Gathering Campaigns on Political Participation," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(1), pages 165-183, March.
    4. Katharina E. Hofer, 2017. "Partisan Campaigning and Initiative Petition Signing in Direct Democracies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(3), pages 261-291, July.
    5. Scott J. LaCombe & Courtney Juelich, 2019. "Salient Ballot Measures and the Millennial Vote," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(2), pages 198-212.

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