Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post‐Civil‐War Democracy

Objective. This study explores the effects of civil war outcome on post‐civil‐war democratization. We employ an expected utility model to argue that the attributes of the civil war that lead to balanced power relations between the warring parties lead to higher levels of postconflict democracy. Methods. We estimate a series of OLS regression models with change in the level of democracy (from the prewar level to five and ten years after the conflict ended) as the dependent variable. Results. Civil wars that end in negotiated settlements are more likely to experience higher levels of democratization than civil wars that end in military victory by either side. Identity‐based conflicts lead to lower levels of democratization while previous democratic experience seems to decrease post‐civil‐war democratization. We find no support for the argument that high war costs and U.N. peace‐keeping forces produce higher levels of democracy. Conclusions. Civil war may lead to more inclusive polities if it serves to even the balance of power between contending groups in the nation. Power balance is more likely to bring about more democratic polities, especially where power sharing is formalized in a negotiated settlement.