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Measuring State Welfare Policy Changes: Why Don't They Explain Caseload and Employment Outcomes?

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  • Brian Cadena
  • Sheldon Danziger
  • Kristin Seefeldt

Abstract

Objectives. Since the implementation of the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, many analysts have attempted to measure the effects of new state welfare policies, particularly work requirements, sanctions, and time limits, on the Act's key goals—reducing cash assistance caseloads and increasing employment among single mothers. De Jong et al. present new measures of state policy variations, but they do not attempt to evaluate the relationships between these measures and welfare reform outcomes. For their analysis to be meaningful, it should contribute to a better understanding of cross‐state variations in caseload declines and increased employment among single mothers. Methods. We first raise conceptual questions about the extent to which their measures are meaningful in a policy sense. We then present analyses of Current Population Survey data. Results. We find that differences in the De Jong et al. stringency measures (factor scores) are not significantly correlated with differences in welfare reform outcomes by state.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Cadena & Sheldon Danziger & Kristin Seefeldt, 2006. "Measuring State Welfare Policy Changes: Why Don't They Explain Caseload and Employment Outcomes?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(4), pages 808-817, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:87:y:2006:i:4:p:808-817
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2006.00436.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    2. James P. Ziliak, 2015. "Temporary Assistance for Needy Families," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Volume 1, pages 303-393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2017. "Do Central Grants Affect Welfare Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1064, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2011. "Does the Employment of Fewer Caseworkers Lead to the Rationing of Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-804, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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