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A Mass–Elite Comparison of Wishful Thinking

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  • Donald Granberg
  • Sören Holmberg

Abstract

Objective. The purpose of this article was to test the generality of wishful thinking by comparing mass and elite beliefs concerning the future of nuclear power in Sweden. Methods. Data from 11 (1986–1996) surveys of the public and a 1988 survey of the Swedish Parliament that included questions concerning preference and expectation regarding nuclear power were examined. Results. A tendency toward wishful thinking occurred consistently across years among the masses, but was considerably stronger among the political elite (members of parliament). The anti–nuclear segment of the public showed a weakened tendency to expect a preferred outcome. Conclusion. Ambiguity of the future outcome, involvement, and knowledge are discussed as key factors in determining the level of wishful thinking in a given context.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Granberg & Sören Holmberg, 2002. "A Mass–Elite Comparison of Wishful Thinking," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1079-1085, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:83:y:2002:i:4:p:1079-1085
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6237.00134
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    Cited by:

    1. Lennart Sjöberg, 2009. "Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Stiers, Dieter & Dassonneville, Ruth, 2018. "Affect versus cognition: Wishful thinking on election day," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 199-215.

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