IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/socsci/v102y2021i5p2194-2209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did Covid‐19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

Author

Listed:
  • Harold Clarke
  • Marianne C. Stewart
  • Karl Ho

Abstract

Objective This article investigates the impact of public reactions to the Covid‐19 panemic on voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election. Methods The impact of the pandemic on voting is assessed by multivariate statistical analyses of representative national survey data gathered before and after the 2020 presidential election. Results Analyses show that voters reacted very negatively to Trump's handling of the pandemic. Controlling for several other relevant factors, these reactions affected voting for Trump and exerted a significant impact on the election outcome. Conclusion Before the onset of Covid‐19 Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2020, and the pandemic did much to ensure his defeat.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold Clarke & Marianne C. Stewart & Karl Ho, 2021. "Did Covid‐19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2194-2209, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:5:p:2194-2209
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12992
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12992
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ssqu.12992?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029, October.
    2. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lorena Barberia & Thomas Plümper & Guy D. Whitten, 2021. "The political science of Covid‐19: An introduction," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2045-2054, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magalhães, Pedro C. & Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2012. "Forecasting Spanish elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 769-776.
    2. Henrik Serup Christensen & Lauri Rapeli, 2021. "Immediate rewards or delayed gratification? A conjoint survey experiment of the public’s policy preferences," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(1), pages 63-94, March.
    3. E Goulas & C Kallandranis & A Zervoyianni, 2019. "Voting Behaviour and the Economy: Evidence from Greece," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 24(1), pages 35-58, March.
    4. Chun-Fang Chiang & Jason M. Kuo & Megumi Naoi & Jin-Tan Liu, 2020. "What Do Voters Learn from Foreign News? Emulation, Backlash, and Public Support for Trade Agreements," NBER Working Papers 27497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2013. "Voting functions in the EU-15," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 411-428, December.
    6. Helios Herrera & Guillermo Ordoñez & Christoph Trebesch, 2020. "Political Booms, Financial Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 507-543.
    7. Herrera, Helios & Konradt, Maximilian & Ordoñez, Guillermo & Trebesch, Christoph, 2020. "Corona politics: The cost of mismanaging pandemics," Kiel Working Papers 2165, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. George Ward, 2015. "Is Happiness a Predictor of Election Results?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1343, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Catherine E. de Vries, 2010. "EU Issue Voting: Asset or Liability?," European Union Politics, , vol. 11(1), pages 89-117, March.
    10. Pedro C. Magalhães & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2017. "Procedural Fairness and Economic Voting," NIPE Working Papers 07/2017, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    11. Bartling, Björn & Fischbacher, Urs & Schudy, Simeon, 2015. "Pivotality and responsibility attribution in sequential voting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 133-139.
    12. Nicholas Clark & Timothy Hellwig, 2012. "Information effects and mass support for EU policy control," European Union Politics, , vol. 13(4), pages 535-557, December.
    13. Martin Okolikj & Stephen Quinlan, 2016. "Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 145-166.
    14. Chwieroth, Jeffrey & Walter, Andrew, 2015. "Great expectations, veto players, and the changing politics of banking crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60953, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Dominik Schraff & Frank Schimmelfennig, 2019. "Eurozone bailouts and national democracy: Detachment or resilience?," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(3), pages 361-383, September.
    16. Fabian Gunzinger & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "It's Politics, Stupid! Political Constraints Determined Governments' Reactions to the Great Recession," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 584-603, November.
    17. Dorin Jula & Nicolae-Marius Jula, 2011. "Analysis of Municipal Election Outcomes in Romania," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1256, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Chase Foster & Jeffry Frieden, 2021. "Economic determinants of public support for European integration, 1995–2018," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(2), pages 266-292, June.
    19. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    20. Arnesen, Sveinung, 2012. "Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 789-796.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:5:p:2194-2209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0038-4941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.