IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/socsci/v102y2021i2p786-807.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 1: Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Desrochers
  • Vincent Geloso
  • Joanna Szurmak

Abstract

Objective This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of the outcome of Paul Ehrlich and Stephen Schneider's counteroffer (1995) to economist Julian Simon following Ehrlich's loss in the famous Ehrlich‐Simon wager on economic growth and the price of natural resources (1980‐1990). Methods Literature review, data gathering and critical assessment of the indicators and proxies suggested or implied by Ehrlich and Schneider. Critical assessment of Simon's reasons for rejecting the bet. Data gathering for his alternative indicators. Results For indicators that can be measured satisfactorily, the balance of the outcomes favors the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period. Extending the timeline and accounting for the measurement limitations or dubious relevance of many of their indicators, however, shifts the balance of the evidence towards Simon's perspective. Conclusion Although the outcomes favour the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period, Ehrlich and Schneider.s indicators yielded mixed results in the long run. Simon's preferred indicators of direct human welfare would yield largely favourable outcomes if the bet were extended into the present. Based on this, we claim that Simon's optimistic perspective was once again largely validated.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Desrochers & Vincent Geloso & Joanna Szurmak, 2021. "Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 1: Outcomes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 786-807, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:2:p:786-807
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12928
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12928
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ssqu.12928?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2006. "The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and … Convergence, Period," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 351-397.
    2. Lawn, Philip, 2010. "On the Ehrlich-Simon bet: Both were unskilled and Simon was lucky," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2045-2046, September.
    3. Stan Becker, 2013. "Has the World Really Survived the Population Bomb? (Commentary on “How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History”)," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2173-2181, December.
    4. Daniel Pauly & Dirk Zeller, 2016. "Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, April.
    5. Garibaldi, Luca, 2012. "The FAO global capture production database: A six-decade effort to catch the trend," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 760-768.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Jacobsen & Louis Rouanet, 2022. "Economists versus engineers: Two approaches to environmental problems," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 359-381, September.
    2. Vincent Geloso, 2022. "Statogenic climate change? Julian Simon and Institutions," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 343-358, September.
    3. Peter J. Boettke & Christopher J. Coyne, 2022. "The economic logic behind the ultimate resource," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 303-314, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter W. Sorensen & Maria Lourdes D. Palomares, 2021. "Global Inland Capture and Culture Finfisheries Follow Different Trends When Evaluated by the Human Development Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-13, July.
    2. Veronica Relano & Maria Lourdes Deng Palomares & Daniel Pauly, 2021. "Comparing the Performance of Four Very Large Marine Protected Areas with Different Levels of Protection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Andrés M. Cisneros‐Montemayor & Sarah Harper & Travis C. Tai, 2018. "The market and shadow value of informal fish catch: a framework and application to Panama," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 83-92, May.
    4. Anastasios Papadopoulos & Konstantinos Touloumis & Emmanouil Tziolas & Dimitrios Boulamatsis & Emmanouil Koutrakis, 2022. "Evaluation of Marine Recreational Fisheries and Their Relation to Sustainability of Fisheries Resources in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Cui Liang & Daniel Pauly, 2017. "Fisheries impacts on China's coastal ecosystems: Unmasking a pervasive ‘fishing down’ effect," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Ravallion, Martin, 2019. "Global inequality when unequal countries create unequal people," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 85-97.
    7. Akpalu, Wisdom & Vondolia, Godwin K. & Adom, Phillip K. & Peprah, Dorcas Asaah, 2023. "Passive Participation in Illegal Fishing and the Welfare of Fishmongers in a Developing Country," EfD Discussion Paper 23-9, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    8. Zeke Marshall & Paul E. Brockway, 2020. "A Net Energy Analysis of the Global Agriculture, Aquaculture, Fishing and Forestry System," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27, June.
    9. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Riccardo Crescenzi, 2008. "Mountains in a flat world: why proximity still matters for the location of economic activity," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 371-388.
    10. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Erickson, Lennart, 2009. "Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1170-1181, July.
    11. Simplice Asongu & Ndemaze Asongu, 2018. "The comparative exploration of mobile money services in inclusive development," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(1), pages 124-139, January.
    12. Andrew Mountford & Hillel Rapoport, 2006. "The Brain Drain and the World Distribution of Income and Population Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_048, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    13. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2015. "Economic shocks in the fisheries sector and maritime piracy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 107-125.
    14. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori, 2018. "Growth and maturity: A quantitative systematic review and network analysis in anthropometric history," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 107-118.
    15. Michal burzynski & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier, 2018. "The Geography of Talent: Development Implications and Long-Run Prospects," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2018002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    16. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu, 2016. "Welfare Spending and Quality of Growth in Developing Countries: A Note on Evidence from Hopefuls, Contenders and Best Performers," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 16/028, African Governance and Development Institute..
    17. Miguel A. Márquez & Elena Lasarte & Marcelo Lufin, 2019. "The Role of Neighborhood in the Analysis of Spatial Economic Inequality," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 245-273, January.
    18. Frédéric DOCQUIER & Joël MACHADO, 2015. "Remittance and Migration Prospects for the Twenty-First Century," Working Papers P133, FERDI.
    19. Ghosh, Abhik & Gangopadhyay, Kausik & Basu, B., 2011. "Consumer expenditure distribution in India, 1983–2007: Evidence of a long Pareto tail," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(1), pages 83-97.
    20. Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa & Laurence Roope & Finn Tarp, 2017. "Global Inequality: Relatively Lower, Absolutely Higher," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(4), pages 661-684, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:2:p:786-807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0038-4941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.