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Professors and Practitioners: Assessing the Impact of COVID‐19 in the State of Oklahoma with and Without Residents of Long‐Term Care Facilities

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  • Jared Taylor
  • Melinda McCann
  • Goutam Chakraborty
  • Glen Krutz
  • Justin Dvorak
  • Aaron Wendelboe

Abstract

Objectives Our analysis, which began as a request from the Oklahoma Governor for useable analysis for state decision making, seeks to predict statewide COVID‐19 spread through a variety of lenses, including with and without long‐term care facilities (LTCFs), accounting for rural/urban differences, and considering the impact of state government regulations of the citizenry on disease spread. Methods We utilize a deterministic susceptible exposed infectious resistant (SEIR) model designed to fit observed fatalities, hospitalizations, and ICU beds for the state of Oklahoma with a particular focus on the role of the rural/urban nature of the state and the impact that COVID‐19 cases in LTCFs played in the outbreak. Results The model provides a reasonable fit for the observed data on new cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. Moreover, removing LTCF cases from the analysis sharpens the analysis of the population in general, showing a more gradual increase in cases at the start of the pandemic and a steeper increase when the second surge occurred. Conclusions We anticipate that this procedure could be helpful to policymakers in other states or municipalities now and in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Jared Taylor & Melinda McCann & Goutam Chakraborty & Glen Krutz & Justin Dvorak & Aaron Wendelboe, 2021. "Professors and Practitioners: Assessing the Impact of COVID‐19 in the State of Oklahoma with and Without Residents of Long‐Term Care Facilities," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(1), pages 17-28, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:1:p:17-28
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12895
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Harris & Jonathan D. Shaffer, 2022. "Comparing disciplinary engagement in global health research across the social sciences," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(2), pages 439-454, March.

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