Assessing Sociodemographic Predictors of Climate Change Concern, 1994–2016

Objective In this research note, I examine whether the growing influence of political orientation on climate change concern has resulted in the declining influence of the sociodemographic variables that have historically predicted such views. Methods Utilizing evidence from the 1994, 2000, 2010, and 2016 General Social Surveys, I conduct ordered logit regressions, Wald significance tests, and partition the pseudo‐R2 across years to ensure consistency of findings. Results A comparison across three decades reveals that while climate change concern was once grounded in sociodemographic predictors such as age, education, income, sex, race, or size of residential area, the explanatory power of those predictors has declined over time. Climate change concern is now better explained by political orientation variables; once modest in influence, only to rise in prominence over time. Conclusion These findings are connected to political polarization and the “denial countermovement” and their impact on the American public. This article is the first to explicitly and systematically track the decline of sociodemographic predictors of climate change concern over time.