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Theory and Estimation of the Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance Decision

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  • Gwilym Pryce

Abstract

This paper examines the decision to take out mortgage payment protection insurance (MPPI) in the UK. The paper explains how MPPI has increased in importance over the last decade due to the government stating that Income Support for Mortgage Interest (ISMI) has crowded–out MPPI. A theoretical model of the mortgage protection insurance decision is developed which takes account of the welfare system. The model is estimated using logit analysis on 1995 Glasgow and Bristol data. Elasticities of the probability of take–up with respect to a variety of arguments are calculated, including the level of ISMI. The estimated elasticity with respect to ISMI is found to be very low, which suggests that the crowding–out motivation for the restructuring of Income Support for Mortgage Interest in October 1995 had little support in the data available at the time of the policy decision, and explains the continued low take–up rates since the 1995 restructuring.

Suggested Citation

  • Gwilym Pryce, 2002. "Theory and Estimation of the Mortgage Payment Protection Insurance Decision," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 216-234, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:49:y:2002:i:2:p:216-234
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9485.00229
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    Cited by:

    1. Ranyard, Rob & McHugh, Sandie, 2012. "Defusing the risk of borrowing: The psychology of payment protection insurance decisions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 738-748.
    2. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "Income Volatility and Residential Mortgage Delinquency: Evidence from 12 EU Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Income volatility and residential mortgage delinquency across the EU," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 153-177, September.
    4. Ashton, John K. & Hudson, Robert S., 2017. "The price, quality and distribution of mortgage payment protection insurance: A hedonic pricing approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 242-255.
    5. Rob Ranyard & Sandie McHugh, 2012. "Bounded rationality in credit consumers' payment protection insurance decisions: the effect of relative cost and level of cover," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 937-950, September.

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