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Does the Forward Premium/Discount Help to Predict the Future Change in the Exchange Rate?

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  • Goodhart, Charles A E
  • McMahon, Patrick C
  • Ngama, Yerima Lawan

Abstract

This paper reexamines the relationship between the spot exchange rate depreciation and the forward premium. Many researchers report a negative, and occasionally significant, coefficient when the spot depreciation is regressed on the forward premium. The authors' analysis reveals that such findings are due to the presence of structural breaks and/or outliers in the data. After allowing for these, the forward premium has no information at all about the future change in the spot exchange rate. This finding is a direct implication of the spot rate being, approximately, a random walk and the covered interest parity holding. Copyright 1992 by Scottish Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima Lawan, 1992. "Does the Forward Premium/Discount Help to Predict the Future Change in the Exchange Rate?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 129-140, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:39:y:1992:i:2:p:129-40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pippenger, John E, 2010. "The Solution to the Forward-Bias and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6br3599r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. Phillips, Peter C. B. & McFarland, James W., 1997. "Forward exchange market unbiasedness: the case of the Australian dollar since 1984," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 885-907, December.
    3. Neslihan Topbas, 2014. "Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 65-78.
    4. Pippenger, John E, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt05d0t24b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    5. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1999. "Re-examining forward market efficiency Evidence from fractional and Harris-Inder cointegration tests," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 433-453, November.
    6. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    7. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    9. repec:rmk:rmkbae:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Cover, James P. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2012. "Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1627-1648.
    11. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    12. Pippenger, John, 2009. "The Forward-Bias Puzzle: A Solution Based on Covered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4dd1075r, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    13. Bell, Adrian R. & Brooks, Chris & Dryburgh, Paul, 2007. "Interest rates and efficiency in medieval wool forward contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 361-380, February.
    14. Olk, Christopher, 2023. "Liquidity premia: the PPP puzzle's missing piece?," SocArXiv exnf6, Center for Open Science.
    15. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    16. Angelos Kanas & Christos Ioannidis, 2012. "Revisiting the forward—spot relation: an application of the nonparametric long-run correlation coefficient," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 148-161, January.
    17. Yutaka Kurihara, 2015. "Are Japanese Stock Prices Important Deterministic Elements of Exchange Rate Returns?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 1-9.
    18. G. C. Lim & C. R. McKenzie, 1998. "Testing the rationality of expectations in the Australian foreign exchange market using survey data with missing observations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 181-190.

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