IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scjsta/v52y2025i1p170-184.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of win, loss probabilities, and win ratio based on right‐censored event data

Author

Listed:
  • Erik T. Parner
  • Morten Overgaard

Abstract

The win ratio has in the recent decade gained popularity for analyzing prioritized multiple event data in clinical cohort studies, in particular within cardiovascular research. The literature on estimation of the win ratio using censored event data is however sparse. The methods that have been suggested have either an insufficient adjustment of the censoring or by assuming the the win and loss probabilities are proportional over time. The assumption of proportional win and loss probabilities will often in practice not be satisfied. In this paper, we present estimates for the win ratio, and win and loss probabilities, under independent right‐censoring and derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimates. The proposed win ratio estimate does not require the assumption of proportional win and loss probabilities. The small sample properties of the proposed method are studied in a simulation study showing that the variance formula is accurate even for small samples. The method is applied on two data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik T. Parner & Morten Overgaard, 2025. "Estimation of win, loss probabilities, and win ratio based on right‐censored event data," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 52(1), pages 170-184, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:52:y:2025:i:1:p:170-184
    DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12734
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12734
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/sjos.12734?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:52:y:2025:i:1:p:170-184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0303-6898 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.