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Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes

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  • Donald B. Rubin

Abstract

. The use of the concept of ‘direct’ versus ‘indirect’ causal effects is common, not only in statistics but also in many areas of social and economic sciences. The related terms of ‘biomarkers’ and ‘surrogates’ are common in pharmacological and biomedical sciences. Sometimes this concept is represented by graphical displays of various kinds. The view here is that there is a great deal of imprecise discussion surrounding this topic and, moreover, that the most straightforward way to clarify the situation is by using potential outcomes to define causal effects. In particular, I suggest that the use of principal stratification is key to understanding the meaning of direct and indirect causal effects. A current study of anthrax vaccine will be used to illustrate ideas.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald B. Rubin, 2004. "Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 31(2), pages 161-170, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:161-170
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9469.2004.02-123.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiba, Yasutaka, 2010. "Estimating the principal stratum direct effect when the total effects are consistent between two standard populations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(11-12), pages 958-961, June.
    2. Chiba, Yasutaka, 2012. "A note on bounds for the causal infectiousness effect in vaccine trials," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1422-1429.
    3. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel, 2010. "Identification of the effects of dynamic treatments by sequential conditional independence assumptions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 111-137, August.
    4. Bampasidou, Maria & Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, 2011. "Unbundling the Degree Effect in a Job Training Program for Disadvantaged Youth," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103619, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Chiba, Yasutaka, 2012. "Bounds on the complier average causal effect in randomized trials with noncompliance," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1352-1357.
    6. Lechner, Michael, 2008. "A note on endogenous control variables in causal studies," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 190-195, February.
    7. Flores, Carlos A. & Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, 2009. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Mechanisms and Net Effects of a Treatment under Unconfoundedness," IZA Discussion Papers 4237, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Karim Chalak & Halbert White, 2008. "Causality, Conditional Independence, and Graphical Separation in Settable Systems," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 689, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 04 Jul 2010.
    9. Michael Lechner, 2005. "A Note on Endogenous Control Variables in Evaluation Studies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    10. Mealli, Fabrizia & Pacini, Barbara, 2008. "Comparing principal stratification and selection models in parametric causal inference with nonignorable missingness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 507-516, December.
    11. Imai, Kosuke, 2008. "Sharp bounds on the causal effects in randomized experiments with "truncation-by-death"," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 144-149, February.
    12. Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2007. "Identification and Estimation of Casual Mechanisms and Net Effects of a Treatment," Working Papers 0706, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    13. VanderWeele, Tyler J., 2008. "Simple relations between principal stratification and direct and indirect effects," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(17), pages 2957-2962, December.

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