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How Does Uncertainty about Future Fiscal Policy Affect Current Macroeconomic Variables?

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  • Neil Rankin

Abstract

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macromodel is constructed, based on infinitely lived, dynamically optimising households with labour market monopoly power. Randomness in future government spending causes randomness in the future output and price levels, both when the money wage is flexible and when it is set one period in advance. We show that, through three different mechanisms, rational anticipation of this depresses current aggregate demand. If the wage is preset, it thereby also depresses current output. Such fiscal uncertainty is suggested as one possible explanation for the faltering of the economic recovery in Europe in 1995 and 1996.

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  • Neil Rankin, 1998. "How Does Uncertainty about Future Fiscal Policy Affect Current Macroeconomic Variables?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 473-494, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:100:y:1998:i:2:p:473-494
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9442.00115
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramiro Rodríguez Revilla, 2011. "Modelos de equilibrio general dinámicos y estocásticos para Colombia 1995-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, December.
    2. Brian Piper, 2014. "Factor-Specific Productivity," Working Papers 1401, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    3. Johnson Kakeu, 2023. "Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1051-1093, April.
    4. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01222798, HAL.
    5. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15066, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.

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