IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v75y2007i3p373-390.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyclical Unemployment And Cyclical Output: An Estimation Of Okun'S Coefficient For South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Marinkov
  • Jean‐pierre Geldenhuys

Abstract

Persistently high unemployment in South Africa, especially in the face of improved economic conditions since 1994, begs the question: Does unemployment in South Africa respond to changes in output? Okun's law refers to the inverse relationship that exists between cyclical output and cyclical unemployment. This paper estimates Okun's coefficient for the South African economy, using annual data from 1970‐2005. Output and unemployment are decomposed into their trend and cyclical components, using a variety of detrending methods. The presence of structural breaks in Okun's relationship is also investigated, while cointegration analysis was also considered. Evidence of a statistically significant relationship between cyclical output and cyclical unemployment are found in both symmetric (estimates range from −0.77 to −0.16) and asymmetric (estimates range from −0.77 to −0.18) specifications of Okun's law, irrespective of the detrending technique. However, cyclical unemployment constitutes only a relatively small fraction of total (observed) unemployment, which implies that a more expansionary macroeconomic policy stance might only have a limited impact on total unemployment in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Marinkov & Jean‐pierre Geldenhuys, 2007. "Cyclical Unemployment And Cyclical Output: An Estimation Of Okun'S Coefficient For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 373-390, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:75:y:2007:i:3:p:373-390
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2007.00134.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2007.00134.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2007.00134.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben Smit & Le Roux Burrows, 2002. "Estimating potential output and output gaps for the South African economy," Working Papers 05/2002, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    2. Geeta Kingdon & John Knight, 2007. "Unemployment in South Africa, 1995--2003: Causes, Problems and Policies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(5), pages 813-848, November.
    3. Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006. "Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roger Perman & Gaetan Stephan & Christophe Tavéra, 2015. "Okun's Law—a Meta-analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(1), pages 101-126, January.
    2. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2021. "Asymmetry in Okun’s Law Revisited: New evidence on cyclical unemployment–cyclical output trade-off in the Free State Province using NARDL model," MPRA Paper 107126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Roger, Perman & Gaetan, Stephan & Christophe, Tavéra, 2013. "Okun’s law – A meta analysis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-59, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Abdessalem GOUIDER & Ridha NOUIRA & Faouzi SBOUI, 2018. "La relation croissance-chômage en Tunisie : validation de la spécification non linéaire de la loi d’Okun," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 47, pages 27-41.
    6. Kavese Kambale & Phiri Andrew, 2020. "A Provincial Perspective of Nonlinear Okun’s Law for Emerging Markets: The Case of South Africa," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 59-76, September.
    7. Andrew Phiri, 2014. "Nonlinear Co-Integration Between Unemployment and Economic Growth in South Africa," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 12(4 (Winter), pages 303-324.
    8. Abiodun O. Folawewo & Oluwafemi M. Adeboje, 2017. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African States," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 197-210, June.
    9. Mbekeni Lutho & Phiri Andrew, 2020. "South African Unemployment in the Post-Financial Crisis Era: What are the Determinants?," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(2), pages 230-248, December.
    10. Chenini Moussa & Ayad Hicham & Attouchi Manel & Dahmani Mohamed Driouche, 2023. "Testing the Validity of Okun’s Law in Algeria: Is there a difference between Maki’s Cointegration and Quantile’s Regression Results?," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 42-63, June.
    11. Tang, Bo & Bethencourt, Carlos, 2015. "Asymmetric Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 66043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.
    13. Frederick C.v.N. Fourie, 2011. "The South African unemployment debate: three worlds, three discourses?," SALDRU Working Papers 63, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    14. Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Re-evaluating Okun's law in South Africa: A nonlinear co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 57398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bande, Roberto & Martín-Román, Ángel, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    16. Brian Tavonga Mazorodze & Noureen Siddiq, 2018. "On the Unemployment Output Relation in South Africa: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(5), pages 167-178.
    17. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2023. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 5-39, January.
    18. Neifar, Malika, 2020. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and augmented Okun's Law in MENA zone," MPRA Paper 98953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Byron Botha & Lauren Kuhn & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10211, South African Reserve Bank.
    20. Mohamad A. Abou Hamia, 2016. "Jobless growth: empirical evidences from the Middle East and North Africa region [Wachstum ohne Beschäftigung – empirische Evidenz aus Nahost und Nordafrika]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 49(3), pages 239-251, November.
    21. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.
    22. Johannes Fedderke, 2012. "The Cost of Rigidity: The Case of the South African Labor Market," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(4), pages 809-842, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rulof P. Burger & Francis J. Teal, 2015. "The Effect of Schooling on Worker Productivity: Evidence from a South African Industry Panel," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(5), pages 629-644.
    2. Mitra, Sophie, 2010. "Disability Cash Transfers in the Context of Poverty and Unemployment: The Case of South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 1692-1709, December.
    3. Fabre, Alice & Pallage, Stéphane, 2015. "Child labor, idiosyncratic shocks, and social policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 394-411.
    4. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    5. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying steady‐state growth and inflation in the South African economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 279-300, September.
    6. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    7. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2020. "Okun’s Law across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
    9. Erten, Bilge & Leight, Jessica & Tregenna, Fiona, 2019. "Trade liberalization and local labor market adjustment in South Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 448-467.
    10. Mbekeni Lutho & Phiri Andrew, 2020. "South African Unemployment in the Post-Financial Crisis Era: What are the Determinants?," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(2), pages 230-248, December.
    11. Russnak, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2023. "Does Okun's law suffer from COVID-19? Evidence from Europe and the US - A research note," Discussion Papers 428, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    12. Brookes Gray, Harriet & Taraz, Vis & Halliday, Simon D., 2023. "The impact of weather shocks on employment outcomes: evidence from South Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 285-305, June.
    13. Bargain, Olivier & Etienne, Audrey & Melly, Blaise, 2021. "Informal pay gaps in good and bad times: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 693-714.
    14. Nicola Branson & Martin Wittenberg, 2007. "The Measurement Of Employment Status In South Africa Using Cohort Analysis, 1994‐20041," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 313-326, June.
    15. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    16. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 216-226, October.
    17. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
    18. Charlotte DU Toit & Elna Moolman, 2003. "Estimating Potential Output And Capacity Utilisation For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 71(1), pages 96-118, March.
    19. Byron Botha & Franz Ruch & Rudi Steinbach, 2018. "Shortlived supply shocks to potential growth," Working Papers 8605, South African Reserve Bank.
    20. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:75:y:2007:i:3:p:373-390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.