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House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970–1998

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  • Bharat Barot
  • Zan Yang

Abstract

We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and the UK for the sample period 1970–1998, using an Error Correction Method (ECM). To facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and the UK we model both countries identically with approximately almost the similar type of exogenous variables. The long–run income elasticities for Sweden and the UK are constrained to be 1.0, respectively. The long–run semi–elasticity for interest rates are 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and the UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 0.12 and 0.23, while on the supply side it is 0.06 and 0.48 for Sweden and the UK, respectively. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes house prices for Sweden, while for the UK there is also feedback from house prices to income. House prices Granger cause financial wealth for Sweden, while for the UK it is vice–versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for the UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for the UK and Sweden. In both countries Tobin’s q Granger cause housing investment. Generally, the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • Bharat Barot & Zan Yang, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970–1998," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 189-216, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revurb:v:14:y:2002:i:2:p:189-216
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-940X.00054
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Arestis & A.R. Gonz�lez, 2014. "Modelling the housing market in OECD countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 131-153, March.
    2. Ms. Rima A Turk, 2015. "Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden," IMF Working Papers 2015/276, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jiangtao Li & Jianyue Ji & Huiwen Guo & Lei Chen, 2018. "Research on the Influence of Real Estate Development on Private Investment: A Case Study of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2014. "The Dynamics and Contrast of House Prices in Portugal and Spain," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Rehman, Saira & Moutinho, Nuno & Alves, Jorge, 2020. "The Relationship Between Portuguese Economy Indicators And Housing Prices," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 8(4), pages 270-286.

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