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Predicting State Abortion Legislation From U.S. Senate Votes: The Effects Of Apparent Ideological Shirking

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  • Stephan F. Gohmann
  • Robert L. Ohsfeldt

Abstract

The recent Supreme Court decision in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services giving more discretion to states to regulate abortion has led to speculation concerning which states might move to limit abortions. Medoff (1989) attempts to predict how state legislatures might vote on state‐level abortion legislation by examining the 1983 Senate vote on the Hatch/Eagleton Amendment. We expand upon Medoff's analysis by incor‐ porating recent developments in agency theory as it applies to the political agents (i.e., Senators) in the empirical model. The results demonstrate that accounting for Senatorial “shirking” and state ideology substantially im‐ proves the predictive ability of the model for the Senate abortion vote. The predicted votes of the state's Senators, after eliminating the effects of apparent Senatorial shirking, are used to infer the likelihood of state‐level legislation substantially restricting abortion. We compare these results to a base model that ignores the issue of shirking and find increased predict‐ ability and several differing results.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan F. Gohmann & Robert L. Ohsfeldt, 1990. "Predicting State Abortion Legislation From U.S. Senate Votes: The Effects Of Apparent Ideological Shirking," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 9(4), pages 749-762, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revpol:v:9:y:1990:i:4:p:749-762
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-1338.1990.tb01076.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Deborah Haas-Wilson, 1993. "The economic impact of state restrictions on abortion: Parental consent and notification laws and medicaid funding restrictions," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 498-511.
    2. Neil Longley, 1999. "Voting on Abortion in the House of Commons: A Test for Legislator Shirking," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(4), pages 503-521, December.

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