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Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?

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  • Henrik Selin
  • Stacy D. VanDeveer

Abstract

This article analyzes how U.S. climate change politics and policy making are changing in the public, private and civil society sectors, and how such changes are likely to influence U.S. federal policies. It outlines the current status of U.S. climate change action and explores four overlapping pathways of policy change: (1) the strategic demonstration of the feasibility of climate change action; (2) the creation and expansion of markets; (3) policy diffusion and learning; and (4) the creation and promulgation of norms about the need for more aggressive climate change action. These four pathways seek to fruitfully draw from rationalist and constructivist approaches to policy analysis, without collapsing or confusing the different logics. Building on this analysis, it predicts that future federal U.S. climate policy will include six major components: (1) A national cap on GHG emissions; (2) A national market based cap‐and‐trade GHG emissions trading scheme; (3) Mandatory renewable energy portfolio standards; (4) Increased national product standards for energy efficiency; (5) Increased vehicle fleet energy efficiency standards; and (6) Increased federal incentives for research and development on energy efficiency issues and renewable energy development. In addition, expanding federal climate policy may bring about significant changes in U.S. foreign policy as U.S. international re‐engagement on climate change is likely to occur only after the development of more significant federal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Selin & Stacy D. VanDeveer, 2007. "Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 24(1), pages 1-27, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revpol:v:24:y:2007:i:1:p:1-27
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-1338.2007.00265.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Dana Fisher & Philip Leifeld & Yoko Iwaki, 2013. "Mapping the ideological networks of American climate politics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 523-545, February.
    2. Lutsey, Nicholas & Sperling, Daniel, 2008. "America's bottom-up climate change mitigation policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 673-685, February.
    3. Karoline Steinbacher & Michael Pahle, 2016. "Leadership and the Energiewende: German Leadership by Diffusion," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 16(4), pages 70-89, November.
    4. Christopher D. Gore, 2010. "The Limits and Opportunities of Networks: Municipalities and Canadian Climate Change Policy," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 27(1), pages 27-46, January.
    5. Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf & Burton St. John & Ivan Ash, 2014. "The role of politics and proximity in sea level rise policy salience: a study of Virginia legislators’ perceptions," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 208-217, September.
    6. Krause, Rachel M., 2012. "The impact of municipal governments' renewable electricity use on greenhouse gas emissions in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 246-253.
    7. Skodvin, Tora, 2010. ""Pivotal politics" in US energy and climate legislation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4214-4223, August.
    8. Solomon, Barry D. & Johnson, Nicholas H., 2009. "Valuing climate protection through willingness to pay for biomass ethanol," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2137-2144, May.

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