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How Fast Has Chinese Industry Grown?—Measuring The Real Output Of Chinese Industry, 1949–97

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  • Harry X. Wu

Abstract

The motivation of this study is to test the widely accepted but never tested hypothesis that Chinese official statistics on growth rates may contain serious upward biases. By adopting a Laspeyres quantity index approach to the recently available official physical output data at commodity level, we have constructed an independent output index for Chinese industry, and produced a unique data set for the value added of 17 major industrial branches at 1987 prices for the period 1949–97. This study has, for the first time, systematically tested this hypothesis with supportive results. It implies that any growth accounting study using the official growth rates may have exaggerated the productivity performance of Chinese industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry X. Wu, 2002. "How Fast Has Chinese Industry Grown?—Measuring The Real Output Of Chinese Industry, 1949–97," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 179-204, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:48:y:2002:i:2:p:179-204
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4991.00047
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Piketty & Li Yang & Gabriel Zucman, 2019. "Capital Accumulation, Private Property, and Rising Inequality in China, 1978–2015," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2469-2496, July.
    2. Nadja Wirz, 2008. "Assessing the Role of Technology Adoption in China's Growth Performance," EPRU Working Paper Series 2008-06, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Holz, Carsten A, 2013. "Monthly industrial output in China since 1983," MPRA Paper 43867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    5. Wu, Harry X., 2011. "The Real Growth of Chinese Industry Debate Revisited--Reconstructing China's Industrial GDP in 1949-2008--," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(3), pages 209-224, July.
    6. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2012. "The Spread of Manufacturing to the Periphery 1870-2007: Eight Stylized Facts," Working Papers 0021, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    7. Wu, Harry X., 2011. "Rethinking China.s Path of Industrialization," WIDER Working Paper Series 076, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Lee, Boon L. & Rao, D.S. Prasada & Shepherd, William, 2007. "Comparisons of real output and productivity of Chinese and Indian manufacturing, 1980-2002," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 378-416, September.
    9. Harry X. Wu, 2011. "Rethinking China's Path of Industrialization," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-076, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Thomas Piketty & Li Yang & Gabriel Zucman, 2017. "Appendix to "Capital Accumulation, Private Property and Rising Inequality in China, 1978-2015"," PSE Working Papers halshs-02659212, HAL.
    11. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    12. Liu, Tung & Li, Kui-Wai, 2012. "Analyzing China's productivity growth: Evidence from manufacturing industries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 531-551.
    13. Lai, Pingyao & Zhu, Tian, 2022. "Deflating China's nominal GDP: 2004–2018," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Guanghua Wan & Peter J. Morgan & Harry X. Wu, 2016. "Sustainability of China's Growth Model: A Productivity Perspective," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(5), pages 42-70, September.
    15. Harry X. Wu, 2006. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-176, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.

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