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International Capital Mobility in Emerging Markets: New Evidence from Daily Data

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  • Michael Kumhof

Abstract

This paper analyzes daily covered interbank interest differentials for three emerging markets before and after the 1997/98 financial crises, and compares them with those of four developed economies. It examines descriptive statistics of covered differentials and the long‐run equilibrium (cointegrating) relationship between their interest rate and forward discount components. Mean differentials and their volatility were moderate before crises, but increased dramatically during crises. The main reasons are temporarily effective capital controls, large bank default risk premia, and capital market imperfections. The evidence for a cointegrating vector consistent with covered interest parity is strong, implying that, despite large short‐term deviations, covered interest parity does hold as an equilibrium relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kumhof, 2001. "International Capital Mobility in Emerging Markets: New Evidence from Daily Data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 626-640, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:4:p:626-640
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9396.00304
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt13d9m8jv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A quantitative assessment of real and financial integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 281-303.
    3. Han‐Min Hsing, 2008. "International Capital Mobility in the Short Run and the Long Run: A Daily Data Study for Japan, Singapore and Taiwan," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 67-82, March.
    4. Kumhof, Michael, 2004. "Sterilization of short-term capital inflows--through lower interest rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1209-1221.
    5. Orlov, Alexei G., 2006. "Capital controls and stock market volatility in frequency domain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 222-228, May.
    6. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
    7. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    8. Juan Sol�, 2010. "Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 431-464, July.
    9. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
    10. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 568-573.
    11. Alexei G. Orlov, 2005. "Pros and Cons of Capital Controls in the Presence of Incomplete Markets," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 49(1), pages 79-93, March.
    12. Kevin X.D. Huang & Thaneepanichskul Suchada, 2003. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Cases of Mexico and Thailand in the Aftermaths of their Recent Currency Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 375-400, November.
    13. Bilson, Chris & Brailsford, Tim & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2022. "Covered interest rate parity deviations in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Doukas, John A. & Zhang, Hao, 2013. "The performance of NDF carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 172-190.
    15. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2005. "EU Enlargement, ERM II and Lessons from the Southern European countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • K39 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Other
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

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