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Government Guarantees, Investment, and Vulnerability to Financial Crises

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  • Gregor Irwin
  • David Vines

Abstract

The paper presents a new model of the East Asian crisis which combines three elements—moral hazard, investment collapse, and multiple equilibria—in a single account. The study locates the causes of the crisis in poor financial regulation, highly leveraged financial institutions, and implicit guarantees to the financial sector. The model has a unique long‐run equilibrium with overinvestment. But in the short run, in which the capital stock is fixed, there may be multiple equilibria. In a crisis the government is forced to renege on its guarantees; the effect is a rapid reversal of foreign capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Irwin & David Vines, 2003. "Government Guarantees, Investment, and Vulnerability to Financial Crises," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 860-874, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:11:y:2003:i:5:p:860-874
    DOI: 10.1046/j.1467-9396.2003.00422.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    2. Robert Dekle & Kenneth Kletzer, 2002. "Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 507-558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hesse, Heiko, 2007. "Monetary policy, structural break and the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 649-669, August.
    2. Germana Corrado, 2011. "Modeling Guarantees, Over-Indebtedness and Financial Crises in an Open Economy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 147-172.
    3. Irina Bunda, 2005. "Un modèle de crises jumelles inspiré de la crise asiatique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(4), pages 903-937.
    4. Irina Bunda, 2005. "Un modèle de crises jumelles inspiré de la crise asiatique," Post-Print halshs-00424464, HAL.
    5. Vaugirard, Victor, 2007. "Bank bailouts and political instability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 821-837, December.
    6. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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