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Can the Consumption–Wealth Ratio Predict Housing Returns? Evidence from OECD Countries

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Ricardo M. Sousa
  • Mark E. Wohar

Abstract

We use a representative consumer model to analyze the relation between the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labor income, cay, and the housing risk premium. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that, if financial and housing assets are seen as complements, investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise when they expect a rise in future housing returns. By contrast, if housing assets are treated as substitutes for financial assets, consumption will be reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ricardo M. Sousa & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Can the Consumption–Wealth Ratio Predict Housing Returns? Evidence from OECD Countries," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(4), pages 935-976, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:47:y:2019:i:4:p:935-976
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12135
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    Cited by:

    1. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Jawadi, Fredj, 2021. "Does inequality help in forecasting equity premium in a panel of G7 countries?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Jie Chen & William Hardin & Mingzhi Hu, 2020. "Housing, Wealth, Income and Consumption: China and Homeownership Heterogeneity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 373-405, June.
    3. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Hassani, Hossein & Yeganegi, Mohammad Reza & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Does inequality really matter in forecasting real housing returns of the United Kingdom?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 18-25.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Linking U.S. State-level housing market returns, and the consumption-(Dis)Aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 779-810.

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