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Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach

Author

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  • Colin Lizieri
  • Stephen Satchell
  • Warapong Wongwachara

Abstract

"We propose newly developed unsmoothing techniques which are based on a regime-switching Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. We first examine analytically conventional unsmoothing techniques which model the true returns by a linear Autoregressive (AR) process ñ and show that when true returns follow a TAR process, the conventional technique is misspecified, and hence still underestimates true variance. Our approach also addresses identification problems that may occur in the conventional method. The threshold/regime technique can be applied both to underlying return processes and to smoothing behaviour. We test these individually and in combination for UK commercial real estate returns, using a variety of exogenous variables. Two variables, FT all share returns and LIBOR interest rates, provide results that improve on the conventional single regime model. The results are intuitively plausible, capturing return behaviour and suggest that in extreme ""crisis"" regimes, returns fall explosively and smoothing effects intensify, by comparison to more benign regimes. These results support parallel work on asymmetries in real estate behaviour and shed important light on the risks of real estate and its diversification potential."
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Suggested Citation

  • Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell & Warapong Wongwachara, 2012. "Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 772-804, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:40:y:2012:i:4:p:772-804
    DOI: j.1540-6229.2012.00331.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2012.00331.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean‐Christophe Delfim & Martin Hoesli, 2021. "Robust desmoothed real estate returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 75-105, March.
    2. Patrick Krieger & Carsten Lausberg & Kristin Wellner, 2018. "Einblicke in die Gründe für nicht-normalverteilte Immobilienrenditen: eine explorative Untersuchung deutscher Wohnimmobilienportfolios [Insights into the reasons for non-normal real estate returns:," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 4(1), pages 49-79, November.
    3. Jaroslav Kaizr, 2019. "Some reflections on commercial real estate indices [Vybrané úvahy nad indexy komerčních nemovitostí]," Oceňování, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 12(1), pages 29-41.
    4. McKenzie, Michael & Satchell, Stephen & Wongwachara, Warapong, 2014. "Converting true returns into reported returns: A general theory of linear smoothing and anti-smoothing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 215-229.
    5. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.
    6. Lingxiao Li & Bing Zhu, 2024. "REITs’ Stock Return Volatility: Property Market Risk Versus Equity Market Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 452-476, October.
    7. Farrelly, Kieran & Stevenson, Simon, 2019. "The risk and return of private equity real estate funds," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    8. Kelvin Jui Keng Tan, 2017. "Why Do Overconfident REIT CEOs Issue More Debt? Mechanisms and Value Implications," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(3), pages 319-348, September.
    9. Pin-te Lin & Franz Fuerst, 2014. "The integration of direct real estate and stock markets in Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(12), pages 1323-1334, April.
    10. Sercan Demiralay & Erhan Kilincarslan, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Sector-Specific REITs in a Regime-Switching Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 545-584, October.
    11. Bing Zhu & Colin Lizieri, 2024. "Local Beta: Has Local Real Estate Market Risk Been Priced in REIT Returns?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 682-718, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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