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Optimal Valuation of Claims on Noisy Real Assets: Theory and an Application

Author

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  • Paul D. Childs
  • Steven H. Ott
  • Timothy J. Riddiough

Abstract

A theory for valuing claims on noisy real assets is developed and applied. Central to the theory is determination of the dynamics for the best estimate of real asset value. The dynamics of the value estimate are shown to differ from the dynamics of the true asset value only in the arrival rate of information. The rate of information arrival in the value estimate can be faster or slower than information arrival in the true asset value, which can lead to unexpected outcomes in the valuation and exercise of options on noisy real assets. The theory we develop is illustrated through an application. An imperfectly competitive market for real estate development is examined, in which agents compete over the timing of lead investment. Information spillover and free–rider incentives are shown to cause significant delay in lead investment. Delay together with a competitive response once lead investment has occurred explain observed patterns of development in gentrified urban land markets and multistage development projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul D. Childs & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2002. "Optimal Valuation of Claims on Noisy Real Assets: Theory and an Application," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 415-443.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:30:y:2002:i:3:p:415-443
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00045
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    Cited by:

    1. Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Regulated prices and real options," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 650-663.
    2. S H Martzoukos, 2009. "Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 843-858, June.
    3. Johannes Strobel & Binh Nguyen Thanh & Gabriel Lee, 2020. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 345-372, June.
    4. Xian Zheng, 2015. "Expectation, volatility and liquidity in the housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 4020-4035, August.
    5. David Geltner & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2003. "Appraisal Smoothing and Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1047-1064, May.
    6. YongQiang Chu & Tien Sing, 2007. "Optimal Timing of Real Estate Investment under an Asymmetric Duopoly," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 327-345, April.
    7. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    8. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    9. Robert Fourt & Gianluca Marcato & Charles Ward, 2007. "Real Option Pricing in Mixed-use Development Projects," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    10. William Mingyan Cheung & James Chicheong Lei & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "Does Property Transaction Matter in the Price Discovery of Real Estate Markets?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 27-49.
    11. Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Real Options And The Cross-Section Of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 265-283, April.
    12. J. Andrew Hansz, 2005. "Prior transaction price induced smoothing: testing and calibrating the Quan--Quigley model at the disaggregate level," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 321-336, April.
    13. Stephen A. Samaha & Wagner A. Kamakura, 2008. "Assessing the Market Value of Real Estate Property with a Geographically Weighted Stochastic Frontier Model," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 717-751, December.
    14. Binh Nguyen Thanh & Johannes Strobel & Gabriel Lee, 2020. "A New Measure of Real Estate Uncertainty Shocks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 744-771, September.
    15. Tunaru Radu S & Viney Howard P, 2010. "Valuations of Soccer Players from Statistical Performance Data," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, April.
    16. Michel Benaroch, 2018. "Real Options Models for Proactive Uncertainty-Reducing Mitigations and Applications in Cybersecurity Investment Decision Making," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 315-340, June.
    17. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Zacharias, Eleftherios, 2013. "Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 236-249.
    18. Steven Ott & W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2012. "Optimal Phasing and Inventory Decisions for Large-Scale Residential Development Projects," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 888-918, November.
    19. W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2014. "Inclusionary Housing Policies, Stigma Effects and Strategic Production Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 589-610, May.
    20. Zan Yang & Shuping Wu, 2019. "Land acquisition outcome, developer risk attitude and land development timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 233-271, August.

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