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Housing Return and Construction Cycles

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  • Matthew Spiegel

Abstract

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of the residential housing market. Within the model housing returns, housing construction, mortgage loan terms, and household maintenance behavior are all endogenous. These interacting elements tie expected housing returns to expected changes in family wealth. As a result: (1) families are credit constrained; (2) mortgage loan‐to‐value ratios can be used to forecast future housing returns; (3) developers acquire land when expected housing returns lie above the rate of interest and then develop when housing returns lie below. Thus, their holdings and construction decisions also forecast housing returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Spiegel, 2001. "Housing Return and Construction Cycles," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 521-551, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:29:y:2001:i:4:p:521-551
    DOI: 10.1111/1080-8620.00021
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    2. Otto Van Hemert, 2010. "Household Interest Rate Risk Management," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 467-505, September.
    3. Clapp, John M. & Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Wong, S.K., 2012. "Empirical estimation of the option premium for residential redevelopment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 240-256.
    4. John Krainer & Mark M. Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2010. "Asset Price Persistence and Real Estate Market Illiquidity: Evidence from Japanese Land Values," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 171-196, June.
    5. Pedro A.C. Saffi & Carles Vergara‐Alert, 2020. "The Big Short: Short Selling Activity and Predictability in House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1030-1073, December.
    6. Tang, Edward Chi Ho & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu, 2018. "Does an Oligopolistic Primary Market Matter? The Case of an Asian Housing Market," MPRA Paper 93680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Linlin Zhao & Jasper Mbachu & Zhansheng Liu, 2019. "Exploring the Trend of New Zealand Housing Prices to Support Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Christopher J. Mayer & Tomasz Piskorski & Alexei Tchistyi, 2010. "The Inefficiency of Refinancing: Why Prepayment Penalties Are Good for Risky Borrowers," NBER Working Papers 16586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.

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