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An Analysis of the Ex Ante Probabilities of Mortgage Prepayment and Default

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  • Tyler T. Yang
  • Henry Buist
  • Isaac F. Megbolugbe

Abstract

Observed mortgage prepayment and default rates have been far different than the ruthless option exercise rates predicted by contingent claims models of mortgage pricing. The discrepancies have been attributed to both the competing‐risk nature of prepayment and default and to transactions costs. This paper tries a different means of reconciliation. We introduce a third stochastic process, household income, into the usual pricing model that includes only the spot interest rate and the house price. The presence of income allows considering consumption‐theoretic determinants of termination. The role of mortgage underwriting rules in restricting optimal prepayment is also explicitly modeled. Numerical ex ante prepayment and default rates based on the theoretical model come much closer to historical experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Tyler T. Yang & Henry Buist & Isaac F. Megbolugbe, 1998. "An Analysis of the Ex Ante Probabilities of Mortgage Prepayment and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 651-676, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:26:y:1998:i:4:p:651-676
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00760
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tyler T. Yang & Jessie Y. Zhang, 2014. "Mortgage defaults and risk-based capital: post-global financial crisis development and implications for emerging markets," Chapters, in: Susan Wachter & Man Cho & Moon Joong Tcha (ed.), The Global Financial Crisis and Housing, chapter 10, pages 231-261, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Julia Braun & Hans-Peter Burghof & Julius Langer & Dag Einar Sommervoll, 2024. "The Volatility of Housing Prices: Do Different Types of Financial Intermediaries Affect Housing Market Cycles Differently?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 377-408, October.
    3. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai & Shan Jiang, 2021. "The Influences of Foreclosure Factors on the Value, Yield, Duration and Convexity of a Mortgage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 361-394, September.
    4. Tyler Yang & Che-Chun Lin & Man Cho, 2011. "Collateral Risk in Residential Mortgage Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 115-142, February.
    5. Lin, Che-Chun & Prather, Larry J. & Chu, Ting-Heng & Tsay, Jing-Tang, 2013. "Differential default risk among traditional and non-traditional mortgage products and capital adequacy standards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-122.
    6. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
    7. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2012. "On the valuation of reverse mortgages with regular tenure payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 430-441.
    8. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240.
    9. Szu‐Lang Liao & Ming‐Shann Tsai & Shu‐Ling Chiang, 2008. "Closed‐Form Mortgage Valuation Using Reduced‐Form Model," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 313-347, June.
    10. Almas Naseem & R. Reesor, 2015. "Risk and reward of home equity borrowing for investment in Canada, a stochastic analysis," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 45-79, January.
    11. Asish Saha & Hock-Eam Lim & Goh-Yeok Siew, 2021. "Housing Loan Repayment Behaviour in Malaysia: An Analytical Insight," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Cristina Viegas & Jos� Azevedo-Pereira, 2012. "Mortgage valuation: a quasi-closed-form solution," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 993-1001, May.
    13. Lin, Che-Chun & Yang, Tyler T., 2005. "Curtailment as a mortgage performance indicator," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 294-314, September.
    14. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2008. "Default, Credit Scoring, and Loan-to-Value: a Theoretical Analysis under Competitive and Non-Competitive Mortgage Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 161-190.
    15. Marsha J. Courchane & Judith A. Giles, 2002. "A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets," Econometrics Working Papers 0201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    16. Thi Mai Luong, 2020. "Selection Effects of Lender and Borrower Choices on Risk Measurement, Management and Prudential Regulation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2020, January-A.
    17. Che-Chun Lin & Ting-Heng Chu & Larry J. Prather & Perry Wang, 2005. "Mortgage Curtailment and Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 95-109.
    18. Ming Shann Tsai & Shu Ling Chiang, 2016. "The Valuation Model for a Risky Asset When Its Risky Factors Follow Gamma Distributions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 421-444, September.
    19. Jian Chen & Jin Xiang & Tyler T. Yang, 2018. "Re-Default Risk of Modified Mortgages," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40.

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