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Return Risk and Cash Flow Risk with Long‐term Riskless Leases in Commercial Real Estate

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  • David Geltner

Abstract

This paper presents a conceptual analysis of some of the key fundamentals that underlie the risk characteristics of commercial real estate returns. In particular, the relationship between the property's return risk and its cash flow risk is explored. This relationship is important because it is the return risk that should matter most to investors, yet it is the cash flow risk or market risk about which we may have the most objective information and the most intuition. This is because real estate assets are generally unsecuritized and trade too infrequently to observe time series of returns (including appreciation) that could be used to directly study the risk characteristics of the returns. By explicitly incorporating the possibility of cash flows governed by riskless long‐term leases, this paper also explores the relationship between lease term and both cash flow risk and return risk.

Suggested Citation

  • David Geltner, 1990. "Return Risk and Cash Flow Risk with Long‐term Riskless Leases in Commercial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 377-402, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:18:y:1990:i:4:p:377-402
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00529
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    Cited by:

    1. Liow, Kim Hiang & Schindler, Felix, 2011. "An assessment of the relationship between public real estate markets and stock markets at the local, regional, and global levels," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-056, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Tsangyao Chang & Xiao-lin Li & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Co-Movement and Causality between the U.S. Real Estate and Stock Markets in the Time and Frequency Domains," Working papers 2013-34, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Dimitrios Kousenidis & Victoria Patsika, 2019. "The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 647-669, May.
    4. Wilson, Patrick James & Okunev, John & Webb, James J, 1998. "Step Interventions and Market Integration: Tests in the U.S., U.K., and Australian Property Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 91-123, January.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:45:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Leon G. Shilton & Janet K. Tandy, 1993. "The Information Precision of CBD Office Vacancy Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 421-444.
    7. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:560:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. John Okunev & Patrick J. Wilson, 1997. "Using Nonlinear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 487-503, September.
    9. Patrick J. Wilson & John Okunev, 1999. "Long-Term Dependencies and Long Run non-Periodic Co-Cycles: Real Estate and Stock Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 257-278.
    10. Tsangyao Chang & Yu-Chen Wei & Yang-Cheng Lu, 2007. "An Empirical Note on Testing the Cointegration Relationship Between the Real Estate and Stock Markets in Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(45), pages 1-11.
    11. Mato Njavro & Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2016. "Regime Switching Behaviour of Real Estate and Equity Prices in Emerging Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 396-410.
    12. Anita CEH CASNI & Maruska VIZEK, 2014. "Interactions between Real Estate and Equity Markets: an Investigation of Linkages in Developed and Emerging Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(2), pages 100-119, March.
    13. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2000. "The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 251-261, November.
    14. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2002. "Relationships between Australian Real Estate and Stock Market Prices--A Case of Market Inefficiency," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 181-192, April.
    15. Leon Shilton, 2000. "Random Walks and the Cointegration of the ACLI and NCREIF," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 435-465.
    16. Emmanuel Anoruo & Habtu Braha, 2008. "Housing and Stock Market Returns: An Application of GARCH Enhanced VECM," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 30-40, June.
    17. Chih-Wei SU & Hsu-Ling CHANG & Chun JIANG, 2013. "Does Wealth or Credit Effect Exist in China?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 104-114, October.
    18. Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Tsangyao & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "The co-movement and causality between the U.S. housing and stock markets in the time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 220-233.
    19. Miceli, Thomas J. & Sirmans, C. F., 1999. "Tenant Turnover, Rental Contracts, and Self-Selection," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 301-311, December.
    20. Su, Chi-Wei, 2011. "Non-linear causality between the stock and real estate markets of Western European countries: Evidence from rank tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 845-851, May.
    21. Kim Hiang Liow & Felix Schindler, 2014. "An Assessment of the Relationship between Public Real Estate and Stock Markets at the Local, Regional, and Global Levels," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(2), pages 157-202.

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