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Forecasting Location Tendencies: An Application To The European Case

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  • Jesús Mur
  • F. Javier Trivez

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this article an econometric model to forecast location tendencies is developed. This model is based on the hypothesis of disequilibrium in the relationship between location factors and industry, which allows one to distinguish between the optimal long‐run regional distribution and that which is actually observed. This structure is completed with the specification of an error correction mechanism, whose relevant prediction horizon is short‐term. The model is transformed into a prediction tool to forecast medium to long‐term location tendencies. The results with respect to the European case tend to favor the hypothesis of regional convergence, although at a lower rate than has been observed to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Mur & F. Javier Trivez, 1998. "Forecasting Location Tendencies: An Application To The European Case," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 277-299, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:77:y:1998:i:3:p:277-299
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5597.1998.tb00718.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristian Behrens & Frédéric Robert‐Nicoud, 2009. "Krugman's Papers in Regional Science: The 100 dollar bill on the sidewalk is gone and the 2008 Nobel Prize well‐deserved," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 467-489, June.
    2. Cantwell, John A. & Piscitello, Lucia, 2000. "The Location Of Mnc'S Technological Activities In Europe: Agglomerative Tendencies And Other Territorial Externalities," ERSA conference papers ersa00p343, European Regional Science Association.

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