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Forecasting Models For Tourism Demand In City Dominated And Coastal Areas

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  • Ann Clewer
  • Alan Pack
  • M. Thea Sinclair

Abstract

ABSTRACT The paper uses Structural time series models to forecast the demand for tourism by nationality in coastal and city‐dominated Spanish provinces. Intervention variables arc introduced lo take account of sudden shocks to tourism demand, such as the bombing of Libya and football's World Cup, The model demonstrates the considerable differences in demand by nationality, and in seasonably, which can occur at the sub‐national level. The Structural model generally provided more accurate forecasts than Box‐Jenkins models. The results indicate that, ceteris paribus, the tourism demand growth rates in the Spanish provinces considered are unlikely to revert to their previous high levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ann Clewer & Alan Pack & M. Thea Sinclair, 1990. "Forecasting Models For Tourism Demand In City Dominated And Coastal Areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 31-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:69:y:1990:i:1:p:31-42
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5597.1990.tb01201.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Juan L. Eugenio-Martin, 2016. "Estimating the Tourism Demand Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Malaga Airport Expansion," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 254-268, April.
    3. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    4. Montserrat Hernández-López, 2004. "Future Tourists' Characteristics and Decisions: The Use of Genetic Algorithms as a Forecasting Method," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 245-262, September.

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