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Estimation of regional input coefficients and output multipliers for the regions of Chile

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  • Cristian Mardones
  • Darling Silva

Abstract

The greatest limitation for carrying out intersectoral studies at the regional level is the lack of regional input–output tables. This study compares various indirect methods to estimate regional output multipliers in 15 regions of Chile through Monte Carlo simulation. The augmented Flegg location quotient (AFLQ) method (δ = 0.5) is chosen since it presents the best behaviour to estimate regional input coefficients and output multipliers. However, the value of δ is sensitive to the number of regions and/or sectors and to the use of simulated or real sectoral gross domestic product (GDP) in each region. So, it is recommended that when it is possible, a simulation of Monte Carlo simulation be carried out to select this parameter in each country and not simply adopt values extracted from the literature. La mayor limitación para realizar estudios intersectoriales a nivel regional es la falta de matrices regionales de input‐output (insumos‐producción). Este estudio compara varios métodos indirectos para estimar los multiplicadores de la producción regional en 15 regiones de Chile mediante una simulación de Monte Carlo. Se eligió el método del cociente de localización de Flegg aumentado (AFLQ, por sus siglas en inglés) (δ = 0,5), ya que presenta el mejor desempeño para estimar los coeficientes regionales de input y los multiplicadores de output. Sin embargo, el valor de δ es sensible al número de regiones y al de sectores, así como a la utilización del producto interior bruto (PIB) por sector, simulado o real, en cada región. Por ello, se recomienda que, cuando sea posible, se realice una simulación de Montecarlo para seleccionar este parámetro en cada país y no adoptar simplemente valores extraídos de la literatura. 地域レベルでセクターを跨いだ研究を実施する上での最大の制限は、地域の産業連関表がないことである。本稿では、モンテカルロシミュレーションにより、複数の間接法を比較して、チリの15の地域の生産乗数を推定する。地域入力係数と出力乗数の推定に最良な、AFLQ (augmented Flegg location quotient)法(δ=0.5)を選択した。しかし、δの値は、地域および/またはセクターの数、および各地域のシミュレートされた、または実際のセクター別の国内総生産 (GDP)の使用に左右される。そこで、可能な場合には、単に文献から抽出した値を採用するのではなく、各国でこのパラメータを選択するために、モンテカルロシミュレーションでのシミュレーションを行うことが推奨される。

Suggested Citation

  • Cristian Mardones & Darling Silva, 2021. "Estimation of regional input coefficients and output multipliers for the regions of Chile," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 875-889, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:100:y:2021:i:4:p:875-889
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oriane Lafuente-Sampietro, 2021. "The multiplier effect of convertible local currencies : case study on two French schemes," Working Papers halshs-03324625, HAL.
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