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A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners: Prospects and Policies

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  • Warren C. Sanderson
  • Sergei Scherbov

Abstract

In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid‐century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of electorates will become net beneficiaries of government expenditures, producing unprecedented changes in their political landscapes. We analyze three aspects of this phenomenon in Germany, Japan, and the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2007. "A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners: Prospects and Policies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(3), pages 543-554, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:33:y:2007:i:3:p:543-554
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00184.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Salm, 2006. "Can subjective mortality expectations and stated preferences explain varying consumption and saving behaviors among the elderly?," MEA discussion paper series 06111, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonatti, Luigi & Lorenzetti, Lorenza Alexandra, 2023. "Long-term economic implications of Demeny voting: A theoretical analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    2. Vaithianathan, Rhema & Aoki, Reiko & Sbai, Erwan, 2013. "Support for Franchise Extension for Children: Evidence on Japanese Attitude to Demeny Voting," CIS Discussion paper series 610, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Yoshio Kamijo & Yoichi Hizen & Tatsuyoshi Saijo & Teruyuki Tamura, 2019. "Voting on Behalf of a Future Generation: A Laboratory Experiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Romp, Ward & Beetsma, Roel, 2023. "OECD pension reform: The role of demographic trends and the business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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