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Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970–2002

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  • Kellie J. Hagewen
  • S. Philip Morgan

Abstract

Cross‐nationally, observed fertility is well below mean levels of reported ideal family size and also usually well below survey respondents' fertility desires and intentions. The United States is an exception. In this article we: (1) discuss the importance of fertility ideals and intentions for understanding observed fertility levels, (2) propose a model that can account for variable attitude‐behavior consistency, and (3) use this model as a framework to examine trends in American women's fertility ideals, intentions, and actual fertility. Our study uses data from the General Social Surveys and the Current Population Surveys. We ask whether preferences and intentions for moderate family sizes have eroded with time. The answer is remarkably clear: the dominant American ideals and intentions are for two or three children, and these preferences have persisted across the last three decades. The unusual aggregate correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States is explained by an apparent offsetting of factors that increase/decrease fertility relative to intentions.

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  • Kellie J. Hagewen & S. Philip Morgan, 2005. "Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970–2002," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(3), pages 507-527, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:31:y:2005:i:3:p:507-527
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00081.x
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    Cited by:

    1. del Rosario de Fatima Juárez Carcaño, María & De Rose, Alessandra & Testa, Maria Rita, 2023. "The relationship between education and fertility preferences in Mexico: Lessons from Italy," SocArXiv cw8xd, Center for Open Science.
    2. Warren B. Miller, 2011. "REFEREED ARTICLES - Differences between fertility desires and intentions: implications for theory, research and policy," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 75-98.
    3. Shige Song & Weidong Wang, 2019. "Testing the Only-Child Advantage in Cognitive Development in the Context of China’s One-Child Policy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(6), pages 841-867, December.
    4. Kodzi, Ivy A. & Johnson, David R. & Casterline, John B., 2012. "To have or not to have another child: Life cycle, health and cost considerations of Ghanaian women," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(7), pages 966-972.
    5. S. Philip Morgan & Guo Zhigang & Sarah R. Hayford, 2009. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 605-629, September.
    6. Masao Nakagawa & Asuka Oura & Yoshiaki Sugimoto, 2022. "Under- and over-investment in education: the role of locked-in fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 755-784, April.
    7. Najat Bazah & A. Jesús Sánchez Fuentes, 2024. "Fertility as a variable for tackling the demographic challenge, is having children in Spain an unfulfilled desire?," Working Papers REM 2024/0317, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Allan Puur & Martin Klesment, 2011. "Signs Of A Stable Or Provisional Increase In Fertility? Reflections On Developments In Estonia," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 54(5), pages 31-55.
    9. Allan Puur & Livia Sz. Oláh & Mariam Irene Tazi-Preve & Jürgen Dorbritz, 2008. "Men's childbearing desires and views of the male role in Europe at the dawn of the 21st century," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(56), pages 1883-1912.
    10. Bassford, Micaela & Fisher, Hayley, 2016. "Bonus babies? The impact of paid parental leave on fertility intentions," Working Papers 2016-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    11. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2011. "Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 99-129.
    12. S. Philip Morgan & Heather Rackin, 2010. "The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 91-118, March.
    13. Melinda Mills & Nicoletta Balbo, 2011. "The influence of the family network on the realisation of fertility intentions," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 179-206.
    14. Maximova, Katerina & Quesnel-Vallée, Amélie, 2009. "Mental health consequences of unintended childlessness and unplanned births: Gender differences and life course dynamics," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 850-857, March.

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