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The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities

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  • Vaclav Smil

Abstract

Modern civilization is subject to gradual environmental, social, economic, and political transformations as well as to sudden changes that can fundamentally alter its prospects. This article examines a key set of such fatal discontinuities by quantifying the likelihood of three classes of sudden, and potentially catastrophic, events—natural disasters (the Earth's collision with nearby asteroids, massive volcanic eruptions and mega‐tsunami generated by these events, as well as by huge landslides); viral pandemics; and transformational wars—and by comparing their likelihood with other involuntary risks (including terrorism) and voluntary actions and exposures.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaclav Smil, 2005. "The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(2), pages 201-236, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:31:y:2005:i:2:p:201-236
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00063.x
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    Cited by:

    1. David S. Reher, 2007. "Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 189-207, June.
    2. Geoffrey McNicoll, 2014. "Population and sustainability," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 19, pages 291-303, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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