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Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

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  • Barbara Berkel
  • Axel Börsch‐Supan
  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Joachim Winter

Abstract

Can the aging problem be solved by a higher birth rate? While the popular notion –“if we have too many elderly we need more children in order to compensate for this”– seems plausible, the results of economic theory are ambiguous at best. This paper employs a quantitative macroeconomic simulation model for Germany and leads to a more subtle view, stressing the importance of human capital formation for long‐term economic growth in this context. Moreover, it takes a very long transitional period until a higher fertility rate results in a larger and better‐ educated labour force that contributes to social security. Therefore, reforms of the social security system still have the highest priority because this is the only way to solve the problems of an aging baby‐boomer generation in the short and medium term – meaning the time until the baby boomers will retire.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:1:p:71-90
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2516.2004.00128.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland - Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," Report Series 26055, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    3. Dickmann, Nicola, 2003. "Demographischer Wandel: Geburtenraten im internationalen Vergleich," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 30(1), pages 45-57.
    4. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
    5. Kokoreva, Maria S. (Кокорева, Мария) & Stepanova, Anastasia N. (Степанова, Анастасия) & Karnoukhova, Elena V. (Карноухова, Елена), 2016. "What We Do not Know about the Ownership Structure of the Largest U.S. Companies? [Чего Мы Не Знаем О Структуре Собственности Крупнейших Компаний Сша?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 36-59, December.
    6. Kai A. Konrad & Wolfram F. Richter, 2005. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 115-130, February.

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