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The asian financial crisis and the natural rate of unemployment: Estimates from a structural var for the newly industrializing economies of asia

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  • Nicolaas Groenewold
  • Sam Hak Kan Tang

Abstract

We use a structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the natural rate of unemployment for Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan for the period 1982-2000. Our results show that the dramatic rise in the unemployment rate observed in Hong Kong and Korea was mainly the result of demand shocks rather than structural changes, while in Singapore the unemployment rate rise reflected almost entirely a rise in the natural rate. Taiwan's natural rate has been relatively stable. We offer explanations for these different results in terms of the different economic characteristics (particularly labor market features) of the four countries. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolaas Groenewold & Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2004. "The asian financial crisis and the natural rate of unemployment: Estimates from a structural var for the newly industrializing economies of asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 45-64, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:9:y:2004:i:1:p:45-64
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    Cited by:

    1. De-Chih Liu, 2011. "Hysteresis Hypothesis in Job Creation and Destruction: Evidence from the U.S," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 389-409, November.
    2. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2022. "Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: Evidence and policy implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 230-239.
    3. Michael K. Salemi, 2007. "Long-run and Cyclic Movements in the Unemployment Rate in Hong Kong: A Dynamic, General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 192007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Nicolaas Groenewold & Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2007. "Killing The Goose That Lays The Golden Egg: Institutional Change And Economic Growth In Hong Kong," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 787-799, October.

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