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Predicting Currency Crises With A Nested Logit Model

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  • Lawrence J. Lau
  • Isabel K. Yan

Abstract

. This paper is the first to apply a nested logit model to measure the probabilities of speculative attacks and the probabilities of successful defences by the central banks. This model allows us to predict the probability not only of speculative attacks but also of successful defences, given attacks. It also provides a framework for analysing the degree to which different factors affect the likelihood of attacks and defences. We find strong evidence that external illiquidity and financial fragility are reliable predictors of currency crises. The results shed light on the validity of the three generations of currency crisis models.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence J. Lau & Isabel K. Yan, 2005. "Predicting Currency Crises With A Nested Logit Model," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 295-316, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:3:p:295-316
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2005.00274.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mr. W. R. M. Perraudin & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Ms. Uma Moorthy, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 2002/007, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Xiao & Liu, Liya, 2014. "Extremes, return level and identification of currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-450.

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