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Oil price shocks and Nigeria's stock market: what have we learned from crude oil market shocks?

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  • Ekpeno L. Effiong

Abstract

Oil price shocks do not only originate from the supply-side of the crude oil market but may also be demand driven. The impact of oil price shocks on stock market activities may be different depending on its origin (i.e. demand and supply shocks). This paper provides the first examination of the impact of the origin of oil price shocks on Nigeria's stock market for the period 1995:1–2011:12. Oil price shocks is decomposed into oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks using a structural vector auto-regression model, and their impacts on stock market prices were analysed using impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. The impulse response results show that stock market's response to oil supply shocks is insignificantly negative but significantly positive to aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks. The cumulative effects of the oil price shocks account for about 47 per cent of the variation in stock prices in the long term. These results suggest that the origin of oil price shocks is crucial for understanding the volatility in Nigeria's stock market. Future policy direction should focus on diversifying the economy to reduce its vulnerability to oil price fluctuations while addressing the inefficiencies in the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Oil price shocks and Nigeria's stock market: what have we learned from crude oil market shocks?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(1), pages 36-58, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:38:y:2014:i:1:p:36-58
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/opec.12027
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanusi Yakubu Muhammad & Isah Auwal & Bello Abdulmajeed Kumo & Yusuf Fadimah, 2023. "Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus in Nigeria: An Asymmetric Cointegration Based on Non-Linear Ardl Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 573-591, November.
    2. Roudari, Soheil & Mensi, Walid & Kharusi, Sami Al & Ahmadian-Yazdi, Farzaneh, 2023. "Impacts of oil shocks on stock markets in Norway and Japan: Does monetary policy's effectiveness matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 343-358.
    3. Moses Tule & Afees Salisu & Charles Chiemeke, 2020. "Improving Nigeria’s Inflation Forecast with Oil Price: The Role of Estimators," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 191-229, March.
    4. Sadeghi, Abdorasoul & Roudari, Soheil, 2022. "Heterogeneous effects of oil structure and oil shocks on stock prices in different regimes: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Tianyang & Wen, Fenghua, 2023. "International stock market volatility: A data-rich environment based on oil shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 184-215.
    6. Enwereuzoh, Precious Adaku & Odei-Mensah, Jones & Owusu Junior, Peterson, 2021. "Crude oil shocks and African stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Asunci n Arner G erre, 2017. "The Spanish used Oils Market: A Vector Error Correction Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 1-10.
    8. Chibueze E. Onyeke & Ifeoma Nwakoby & Josaphat U. J. Onwumere & Ifeoma Ihegboro & Chidiebere Nnamani, 2020. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Sectoral Returns in Nigeria Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 208-215.
    9. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Sjo, Bo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Commodities price cycles and their interdependence with equity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu & Abiodun O. Folawewo, 2020. "Investigating the relationship between changes in oil prices and unemployment rate in Nigeria: linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    11. Chuke Nwude & Damilola Felix Eluyela & Elias Igwebuike Agbo & Francis O Iyoha, 2021. "The Influence of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Market of Developing Economies: A Focus on Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 100-109.
    12. Amarachi Uzo-Peters & Temitope Laniran & Adeola Adenikinju, 2018. "Brent prices and oil stock behaviors: evidence from Nigerian listed oil stocks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Christopher N. Ekong & Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2015. "Oil Price Shocks and Nigeria’s Macroeconomy: Disentangling the Dynamics of Crude Oil Market Shocks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(6), pages 920-935, December.
    14. Nguyen Thi My Linh, 2023. "Covid-19 pandemic and stock returns volatility: Evidence from Vietnam’s stock marke," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 13(1), pages 156-168.
    15. Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed, 2017. "The Impacts of Non-linear Oil Price Shocks on Saudi Savinginvestment Behavior: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 155-165.

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