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An Empirical Analysis of the Changing Role of the German Bundesbank after 1983

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  • Juselius, Katarina

Abstract

A cointegrated VAR model describing a small macroeconomic system consisting of money, income, prices, and interest rates is estimated on split sample data before and after 1983. The monetary mechanisms were found to be significantly different. Before 1983, the money supply seemed controlable and expansion or contraction of money supply had the expected effect on prices, income, and interest rates. After 1983, the conventional mechanisms no longer seemed to work. The empirical analysis pointed to the crucial role of the bond rate in the system, particularly for the more recent period. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Juselius, Katarina, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of the Changing Role of the German Bundesbank after 1983," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 791-819, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:58:y:1996:i:4:p:791-819
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O., 1999. "Fiscal Policy in the Transition to Monetary Union: a Structural VAR Model," Working papers 60, Banque de France.
    2. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Income inequality and health: Evidence from developed and developing countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-56.
    3. Katarina Juselius, 2011. "On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. Wade Hands (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Recent Economic Methodology, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 2003. "Transmission Of German Monetary Policy In The Pre-Euro Period," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(5), pages 711-733, November.
    5. Katarina Juselius, 2021. "Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: A Personal Research Odyssey," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, February.
    6. Hesse, Heiko, 2007. "Monetary policy, structural break and the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 649-669, August.
    7. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2002. "On the small sample properties of weak exogeneity tests in cointegrated VAR models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,2, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    8. Francesco Carlucci & Alessandro Girardi, 2004. "National Specifities and Monetary-Policy Trasmission in Europe," Working Papers in Public Economics 73, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    9. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
    10. Eleftheriou, Maria, 2009. "Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 946-960, September.
    11. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2922-2938, June.
    12. J. Barkley Rosser Jr & Richard P.F. Holt & David Colander, 2010. "European Economics at a Crossroads," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13585.
    13. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.
    14. Dierk Herzer, 2017. "The Long-run Relationship Between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 462-487, February.
    15. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    16. Barbara Dluhosch, 2011. "European Economics at a Crossroads, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Richard P. F. Holt, and David Colander," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 629-631, August.
    17. Christian Müller-Kademann, 2009. "Biased Estimation in a Simple Extension of a Standard Error Correction Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(I), pages 37-60, March.
    18. Christian MÜLLER, 2010. "Interpretation of Cointegration Coefficients - A Paradox, a Solution and Empirical Evidence," EcoMod2004 330600100, EcoMod.
    19. Paolo PAESANI, 2003. "Will the Monetary Pillar Stay? A Few Lessons from the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/10, European University Institute.
    20. Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Comparing monetary policy transmission across European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 58-83, March.
    21. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
    22. Imke Brüggemann, 2003. "Measuring Monetary Policy in Germany: A Structural Vector Error Correction Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(3), pages 307-339, August.
    23. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Wolters, Jürgen, 1997. "A money demand system for M3 in the unified Germany," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,92, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    24. Moersch, Mathias & Nautz, Dieter, 1998. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: A structural interpretation," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,6, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    25. Juselius, Katarina & Toro, Juan, 2005. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in Spain: The effect of monetization, financial deregulation, and the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 509-531, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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