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How Do Firms React to Surprising Changes to Demand? A Vector Autoregressive Analysis Using Business Survey Data

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  • Buckle, Robert A
  • Meads, Chris S

Abstract

The way in which economic agents respond to unexpected changes to demand is a central issue in contemporary business cycle theories. Although several empirical papers have used macro data to evaluate this issue there are very few results available that have used direct measures of expectation errors from micro panel data. This paper uses micro panel data from a New Zealand quarterly tendency survey to derive expectation errors for nine variables over an unusually long period of 24 years. A vector-autoregressive model is estimated and used to simulate the dynamic reaction of manufacturers to surprising changes to demand. Unexpected changes to demand are important in explaining unplanned changes in output, inventories, employment and labor turnover. Selling price and cost expectation errors are not particularly sensitive to surprising changes to demand. Copyright 1991 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Buckle, Robert A & Meads, Chris S, 1991. "How Do Firms React to Surprising Changes to Demand? A Vector Autoregressive Analysis Using Business Survey Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(4), pages 451-466, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:53:y:1991:i:4:p:451-66
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, M., 2000. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission - Evidence from German Business Survey Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/12, European University Institute.
    2. David Law & Bob Buckle & Dean Hyslop, 2006. "Toward a Model of Firm Productivity Dynamics," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/11, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
    4. Ciaran Driver & Fabrice Goffinet, 1998. "Investment under Demand Uncertainty, Ex-Ante Pricing, and Oligopoly," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 13(4), pages 409-423, August.
    5. Richard De Abreu Lourenco & Philip Lowe, 1994. "Demand Shocks, Inflation and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9411, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Brian Silverstone, 2000. "Respondent Dynamics within the NZIER Survey of Business Opinion: An Introductory Perspective," Working Papers in Economics 00/03, University of Waikato.

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