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Can Existing Consumption Functions Forecast Consumer Spending in the Late 1980's?

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  • Carruth, Alan
  • Henley, Andrew

Abstract

The recent failure to predict the strong growth in consumer spending and decline in the savings ratio in the United Kingdom has prompted a number of economic forecasters to reassess the basis of their consumer expenditure relationships. This paper assesses the failure of the traditional Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo, and Hendry and Ungern-Sternberg specifications and show that a Hendry and Ungern-Sternberg specification applied to the LBS definition of consumer spending forecasts the period 1985-87 remarkably well. The treatment of asset stocks, particularly the inclusion of housing wealth in the definition of personal wealth, and the link with durable spending have an important bearing on this improvement in forecasting performance. Copyright 1990 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Carruth, Alan & Henley, Andrew, 1990. "Can Existing Consumption Functions Forecast Consumer Spending in the Late 1980's?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 211-222, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:52:y:1990:i:2:p:211-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Church, Keith B. & Curram, Stephen P., 1996. "Forecasting consumers' expenditure: A comparison between econometric and neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 255-267, June.
    2. de Ruiter, Marcel & Smant, David J. C., 1999. "The Household Balance Sheet and Durable Consumer Expenditures: An Empirical Investigation for The Netherlands, 1972-93," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 243-274, March.
    3. Chadha, J.S. & Schellekens, P., 1998. "Utility functions for central bankers: the not so drastic quadratic," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9818, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.
    5. Ulph, A., 1993. "Environmental policy and international trade when governments and producers act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9318, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Aldrich, J., 1992. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9218, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    7. Ulph, A., 1997. "Political institutions and the design of environmental policy in a federal system with asymmetric information," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9718, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    8. Ulph, A., 1995. "International environmental regulation when national governments act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9518, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    9. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Bribery, efficiency wages and political protection," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9418, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    10. Duncan Maclennan & Gwilym Pryce, 1996. "Global Economic Change, Labour Market Adjustment and the Challenges for European Housing Policies," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(10), pages 1849-1865, December.
    11. A. Bayar & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "Determinants of private consumption," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 135, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology I," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9618, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    13. Gwilym Pryce, 1999. "Construction Elasticities and Land Availability: A Two-stage Least-squares Model of Housing Supply Using the Variable Elasticity Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(13), pages 2283-2304, December.
    14. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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