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Evidence Theory As A Procedure For Handling Novel Events

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  • Guido Fioretti

Abstract

Evidence Theory is a branch of the mathematics of uncertain reasoning that entails profound epistemological differences with respect to Probability Theory. In fact, its paradigmatic situation is the judge who must evaluate testimonies, rather than the gambler who must evaluates odds. Unlike a gambler, who faces a definite set of possibilities, a judge maybe forced to change her evaluation because of novel possibilities suggested by unexpected testimonies. In this sense, Evidence Theory provides a formalization of some among Shackles intuitions. While the details of the connections between Shackle's theory and Evidence Theory have been explored elsewhere, this article is devoted to a detailed explanation of the working of Evidence Theory. An example is discussed in detail and several domains of application are briefly sketched.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Fioretti, 2009. "Evidence Theory As A Procedure For Handling Novel Events," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 283-301, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:60:y:2009:i:2:p:283-301
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2008.00331.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guido Fioretti, 2004. "Evidence Theory: A Mathematical Framework For Unpredictable Hypotheses," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 345-366, November.
    2. Joel A. C. Baum & Helaine J. Korn, 1999. "Dynamics of dyadic competitive interaction," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 251-278, March.
    3. Guido Fioretti, 2001. "A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 2(1), pages 77-98, March.
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    1. Fioretti, Guido, 2009. "Either, Or. Exploration of an Emerging Decision Theory," MPRA Paper 12897, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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