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Independence Day For The ‘Old Lady’: A Natural Experiment On The Implications Of Central Bank Independence

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  • JAGJIT S. CHADHA
  • PETER MACMILLAN
  • CHARLES NOLAN

Abstract

Central bank independence is widely thought be a sine qua non of a credible commitment to price stability. The surprise decision by the UK government to grant operational independence to the Bank of England in 1997 affords us a natural experiment with which to gauge the impact on the yield curve from the adoption of central bank independence. We document the extent to which the decision to grant independence was ‘news’ and illustrate that the reduction in medium‐ and long‐term nominal interest rates was some 50 basis points, which we show to be consistent with a sharp increase in policy‐maker's aversion to inflation deviations from target. We therefore suggest that central bank independence represents one of the clearest signals available to elected politicians about their preferences on the control of inflation.

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  • Jagjit S. Chadha & Peter Macmillan & Charles Nolan, 2007. "Independence Day For The ‘Old Lady’: A Natural Experiment On The Implications Of Central Bank Independence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(3), pages 311-327, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:75:y:2007:i:3:p:311-327
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2007.01019.x
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    Cited by:

    1. David Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government: the first 13 years of the MPC," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(1), pages 47-70, SPRING.
    2. David Cobham, 2013. "Monetary policy under the Labour government 1997-2010: the first 13 years of the MPC," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1302, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
    3. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    4. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    5. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Holly, Sean, 2010. "Macroeconomic models and the yield curve: An assessment of the fit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1343-1358, August.

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