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Smooth Transitions and GDP Growth in the European Union

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  • David Greenaway
  • Stephen Leybourne
  • David Sapsford

Abstract

In this paper we test whether GDP series in 12 European Union countries are integrated or are stationary around a deterministic component that may change gradually and smoothly between two regimes over time. We find that in two‐thirds of cases there appears to be a role for modelling with deterministic functions that allow smooth transitions, in some cases standing alone, in others in conjunction with additional integrated regressors. These findings constitute a challenge to traditional approaches to modelling breaking‐trend behaviour in GDP, which typically impose the condition that breaks, when present, must occur instantaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • David Greenaway & Stephen Leybourne & David Sapsford, 2000. "Smooth Transitions and GDP Growth in the European Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(2), pages 145-165, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:2:p:145-165
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00187
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    Cited by:

    1. D'Adda, Carlo & Scorcu, Antonello E., 2003. "On the time stability of the output-capital ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1175-1189, December.
    2. Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2005. "Modelling GDP in CEECs Using Smooth Transitions," wiiw Working Papers 36, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
    4. Foster, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2007. "Modeling transformation in CEECs using smooth transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 57-86, March.
    5. Vougas, Dimitrios V., 2006. "On unit root testing with smooth transitions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 797-800, November.

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