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Exchange Rate Survey Data: A Disaggregated G-7 Perspective

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  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

In this paper, some standard propositions pertaining to the formulation of foreign exchange market expectations are examined using a new survey database. The database has two novel features over such data used by other researchers. In particular, it consists of disaggregated survey responses for three key currencies conducted simultaneously in the G-7 countries. It is demonstrated, inter alia, that there are important intracountry and intercountry differences with respect to individual forecasting performances. This result indicates a substantial degree of suboptimal information processing. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • MacDonald, Ronald, 1992. "Exchange Rate Survey Data: A Disaggregated G-7 Perspective," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(0), pages 47-62, Supplemen.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:60:y:1992:i:0:p:47-62
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
    2. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    3. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "The impact of central bank intervention on exchange-rate forecast heterogeneity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 38-63, March.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
    5. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    6. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
    7. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    8. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
    9. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Schröder, Michael & Dornau, Robert, 2000. "Do Forecasters use Monetary Models? An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Expectations," CoFE Discussion Papers 00/14, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    11. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    12. A. Bénassy-Quéré & S. Larribeau & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Models of exchange rate expectations : heterogeneous evidence from Panel data," THEMA Working Papers 99-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    13. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1996. "Hétérogénéité des prévisionnistes : une exploration des anticipations sur le marché des changes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 109-115.
    14. Imane El Ouadghiri, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Imane El Ouadghiri, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis," Working Papers hal-04141409, HAL.

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