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Money and Business Cycles in the U.S. and U.K., 1870 to 1913

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  • Capie, Forrest H
  • Mills, Terence C

Abstract

This paper examines the cyclical relationship between money and output for both the U.S. and U.K. during the years leading up to 1914. New data series for the U.S. output and U.K. money are used and a variety of time series techniques are employed. The results show that there is a strong cyclical money-output relationship in the U.S. but rather weak one in the U.K. Our explanation is based on the fact that there were no financial crises or banking panics in the U.K. and consequently less volatility in the monetary series. This, we argue, is a consequence of both the Bank of England acting as a lender of last resort and of the development of a branch banking structure, neither of which was a feature of the U.S. banking system in this period. Copyright 1991 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Capie, Forrest H & Mills, Terence C, 1991. "Money and Business Cycles in the U.S. and U.K., 1870 to 1913," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 59(0), pages 38-56, Supplemen.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:59:y:1991:i:0:p:38-56
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Mills, Terence C. & Capie, Forrest, 2019. "The slope of the term structure and recessions: evidence from the UK, 1822-2016," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100092, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 16-36.
    3. Goodhart, Charles & Mills, Terence & Capie, Forrest, 2019. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: Evidence from the UK, 1822-2016," CEPR Discussion Papers 13519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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