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The Term Structure of Forward Foreign Exchange Premia: The Inter-war Experience

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  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

In this paper, the efficient markets view of the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia is tested for the interwar experience with floating exchange rates, using a vector autoregressive methodology. One novel feature of the paper is the use of data sampled more finely than the shortest of the authors' forward maturities; this enables them to conduct highly efficient tests of the term structure model. In common with tests of this model for the recent floating experience, they report an overwhelming rejection. Copyright 1990 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "The Term Structure of Forward Foreign Exchange Premia: The Inter-war Experience," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(1), pages 54-65, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:58:y:1990:i:1:p:54-65
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    Cited by:

    1. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2008. "Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-373, October.
    2. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    4. Wang, Peijie & Jones, Trefor, 2002. "Testing for efficiency and rationality in foreign exchange markets--a review of the literature and research on foreign exchange market efficiency and rationality with comments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 223-239, April.
    5. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2003. "The term structure of deviations from the interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 57-67, February.
    6. Doskov, Nikolay & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Empirical evidence on the currency carry trade, 1900–2012," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-389.

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