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A Spectral Analysis Of The Kondratieff‐Cycle

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  • Casper VAN Ewijk

Abstract

According to Kondratiefflong term economic growth in industrialized countries is characterized by a 40‐ to 60‐years‐long cycle. The existence of this cycle is much debated. This article presents a spectral analytic test of the long cycle on the basis of price and volume series for Great Britain, France, Germany and the United States. In addition, long cyclical relations between prices and production and the relations between these variables internationally are analyzed by means of cross spectral analysis. The results of these analyses seem to confirm the existence of a Kondratieff‐cycle in prices, but contradict the existence of a (simultaneous) long cycle in real variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Casper VAN Ewijk, 1982. "A Spectral Analysis Of The Kondratieff‐Cycle," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 468-499, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:35:y:1982:i:3:p:468-499
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1982.tb01226.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Tausch, Arno, 2013. "The hallmarks of crisis. A new center-periphery perspective on long cycles," MPRA Paper 48356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    3. Dapontas Dimitrios & Evangelopoulos Panagiotis, 2013. "Has the NAFTA Foundation Affected Business Cycles Length? An Introduction," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 145-153, July.
    4. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2008. "New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 719-737, December.
    6. G. Silverberg, 2007. "Long Waves: Conceptual, Empirical and Modelling Issues," Chapters, in: Horst Hanusch & Andreas Pyka (ed.), Elgar Companion to Neo-Schumpeterian Economics, chapter 50, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Kuznets versus Kitchin, Juglar & Kondratieff. Renewed Spectral Analysis of Comparative Growth of Per Capita GDP series in the OECD Countries in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Working Papers 05-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    8. Eirini Ozouni & Constantinos Katrakylidis & Grigoris Zarotiadis, 2015. "Investigating the Long Cycles of Capitalism With Spectral and Cross-Spectral Analysis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(1), pages 7-30.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Orley M. Amos, Jr., 1989. "An Inquiry into the Causes of Increasing Regional Income Inequality in The United States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-12, Spring.
    12. Bieshaar, H. & Kleinknecht, A., 1983. "Kondratieff long waves in aggregate output? : an econometric test," Serie Research Memoranda 0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    13. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    14. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    15. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Fratianni, Michele, 2019. "Money growth and inflation: International historical evidence on high inflation episodes for developed countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland.
    16. David Croix, 2001. "Standard-of-Living Aspirations and Economic Cycles," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques Drèze (ed.), Advances in Macroeconomic Theory, chapter 13, pages 255-282, Palgrave Macmillan.

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